"Better" marathon predictor calculator

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Jwolf
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"Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Jwolf » Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:19 pm

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sp ... etter.html

Gives predictions of times about 10 minutes slower than the typical calculators.

The calculator uses "typical" weekly mileage in training as one of the factors, and is better if you put in two shorter race times. It was developed based on data from a survey of 2500 marathoners.

Still predicts faster than I've been able to do. :P

How does it compare for you?
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Joe Dwarf
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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Joe Dwarf » Sat Nov 01, 2014 1:20 am

Put in my 10k and 21k PBs and 75 km/week which was average in the month leading up to taper for my last full, it was 1 minute faster than my actual.

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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby marymac442 » Sat Nov 01, 2014 3:35 am

It provided a pretty reasonable time that is about 1 minute faster than I have managed and 5 minutes slower than my A goal.
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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Joe Dwarf » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:07 am

Interestingly even if I say I will log 120 km/week it predicts much slower than Daniels or McMillan.

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"Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Jwolf » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:19 am

Joe Dwarf wrote:Interestingly even if I say I will log 120 km/week it predicts much slower than Daniels or McMillan.


I think you probably exposed the limitation of the calculator- it is using self-reported data so will be representative of the masses- but not necessarily the pointy ends. Likely very few people who ran that much mileage reported.

I also don't remember when the survey came out.

P.s. If I put in my numbers it still gives marathon times of 10-15 minutes faster than I've been able to do.
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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby alexk » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:15 am

Thanks for the link, Jen. My #s gave me a time about 5 minutes slower than my fastest marathon (6 months ago) and a minute slower than my latest, a couple of weeks ago.

The times are about 10 to 15 minutes slower than the other calculators but I tend look at those times as beyond my reach.

I think this is a useful tool :).
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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Dstew » Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:58 pm

Historically, the predictor was about 5 minutes or so slower then my actual marathon time but the other predictors were 5 - 10 minutes faster. And for my last race, it was 2 minutes faster but I had not golfed the day before and had to golf the day after, it was just about bang on. I used a hard trail race and the low training miles I was running and it predicted 4:25 compared to the 4:27 I ran.

I think a calculator that has one training for and running a marathon that is 5 minutes or so slower then your capability is infinitely better then one that has someone 10 minutes faster in my opinion.

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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Hammie » Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:13 pm

It predicted 5-7 minutes slower than my actual marathon times for my two faster marathons, but closer than other calculators (which were 10+ minutes faster than my actual times)
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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Irongirl » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:36 am

It predicted 2 minutes faster than my spring marathon - and, I had more in me (I was pacing a friend).....

It also predicted with a few minutes of my first marathon, based on my half and 10k time at that time (compared to runner's world that predicted 30 minutes faster!)
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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Jo-Jo » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:55 am

I used a couple race times for the year I ran Toronto Marathon.
This calculator predicted a 4:19 fullM. Runner's World predicted 4:00
I ran 4:13 and finished with a little gas left in tank.
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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Avis » Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:18 pm

Predicted 6 hours, 32 minutes for me. Sounds reasonable. :roll:
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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby Jo-Jo » Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:27 pm

Avis wrote:Predicted 6 hours, 32 minutes for me. Sounds reasonable. :roll:



which is a heck of a lot faster than everyone who's still lying on the couch...just sayin....
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Re: "Better" marathon predictor calculator

Postby MichaelMc » Sun Nov 02, 2014 6:13 pm

I'm glad to see another attempt to produce a more accurate "predictor". Since there are always going to be people who have better or worse than average endurance, no predictor can produce a number that will work for everyone. I've always preferred one that produced the AVERAGE result and left it to people to decide which side of average they are, and how far.

The other "predictors" are based on extremely good endurance runners. Since those runners are the least likely to need help choosing a goal pace it has always seemed to me predictors tended to do more harm than good.


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