30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any nearer

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30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any nearer

Postby HCcD » Fri Jun 17, 2011 6:51 am

30km World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any nearer?

Does 1:26:47 for 30 km = 2:02 over 42 km?

Given the slew of comments and discussion on the whole barefoot running issue, we thought we would move to another controversial (and recurring) topic: The 2:02 marathon. If you missed the debate on barefoot running, we really encourage you to read the post and the comments, because dare we say that together they represent some of the best discussion on the topic anywhere.


But as we try to leave that topic behind (for now - Prof Daniel Lieberman has just been confirmed as a speaker at the UKSEM conference in November, along with Ross, so more to come. Also, more on this conference soon!), let's move on to marathon running once again, and specifically Moses Mosop's world records at 30 km and 25 km at the Prefontaine meet in Oregon on 3 June.

http://www.sportsscientists.com/2011/06/30km-world-record-does-it-bring-202.html
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Re: 30km World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any neare

Postby LeonKomposky » Fri Jun 17, 2011 9:31 am

Another world record with a negative split. And a pretty significant one at that - more than a minute faster in the second half.

That pace is mind boggling. Looks like if everything goes his way, a world record may be in store this fall.
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Re: 30km World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any neare

Postby roadrunner » Thu Sep 29, 2011 12:01 pm

Not sure where I saw it but the Marathon World Record was broken in Berlin by the Kenyan in the article. Now 2hrs 3 mins 30 secs. He used 6 pacers and the last one lasted till 25km. Geb dropped out after trying to stay with him.

Yes Sub 2 hours is possible in our lifetime. Record is coming down in chunks.

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Re: 30km World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any neare

Postby fingerboy » Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:33 am

HCcD wrote:
30km World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any nearer?

Does 1:26:47 for 30 km = 2:02 over 42 km?


Not in the sense of extrapolation in real world settings. Its like saying does Usain Bolt's 100m @ 9.58 = future marathon paces?

But empirically, a 1:26:47 30k becomes a 2:02:04

But UB's anerobic dash becomes a 1:07:23 full.

I have no doubt we will see the 2:02 marathons soon, and probably sub 2 in our lifetime. The person may have to have part cheetah and part camel genes but that's another story.

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Re: 30km World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any neare

Postby Jwolf » Tue Nov 08, 2011 8:55 am

fingerboy wrote:
HCcD wrote:
30km World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any nearer?

Does 1:26:47 for 30 km = 2:02 over 42 km?


Not in the sense of extrapolation in real world settings. Its like saying does Usain Bolt's 100m @ 9.58 = future marathon paces?

But empirically, a 1:26:47 30k becomes a 2:02:04


Did you read the article? They talk about this pretty explicitly.

The headline taken out of context might seem like an odd question, but it makes sense when you read the details of how he set the record. It's nothing like extrapolating from 100m.
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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any nearer

Postby fingerboy » Tue Nov 15, 2011 3:35 pm

I read the article, the author agrees with me.

I posted after the "let's wait to see what the fall marathons brings" already occurred, ie Chicago.

Mosop ran Chicago in 2:05:37. Hardly close to his Boston time (obviously wind assisted), and his 30k split of 1:28:47 is a drop in the bucket compared to his 1:26:47 from June the article refers to.

My other point is that I do think the record will be broken one day, including the 2 hr mark. A 1:07 marathon will never happen, its a stupid comparison. But you don't need to take everything so literal on the net. Especially from me :)

MM definitely has the likelihood and probability to improve, but once again we can't know if he too will be shot by his ex-lover or "fall off a roof" or whatever Wanjiru's official story is.

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby Spirit Unleashed » Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:15 pm

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby jamix » Wed Mar 14, 2012 6:22 pm

I would've thought the Kenyan runners would have had a higher "F" value....This finding has been found in other studies, according to Noakes.
2013 GOALS:

- Compete in the "Early Bird Sprint Triathlon" in May
- Run a 5km pb during the "Bushtukah Canada Day Road Race"
- Complete an Olympic distance triathlon
- Cycle > 33 km / hr during the cycle portion of a Sprint Triathlon.
- Stay healthy and happy

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby HCcD » Mon Nov 05, 2012 2:01 pm

Is a Two-Hour Marathon Within Reach?
It will take a high VO2 max, peak running economy, good health and the right mental space.

http://news.discovery.com/adventure/two-hour-marathon-111017.html
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Re: 30km World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any n

Postby oink » Mon Nov 05, 2012 2:27 pm

fingerboy wrote:I have no doubt we will see the 2:02 marathons soon, and probably sub 2 in our lifetime. The person may have to have part cheetah and part camel genes but that's another story.


Hmmm....you think so? I doubt that will ever happen. Just because someone ran a 1:26 30km doesn't mean they can maintain that pace for another 12.2km. There is the physical and psychological aspects that come into play here, and hopefully that person wasn't on what Lance Armstrong (EPO et al) was on

A 2:02 marathon? Not in this lifetime.

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby ngcaper » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:34 pm

2:02 I have no doubt will happen...I'm hoping your not old enough or sick enough for it not to happen in your lifetime. If you check out the improvements in the past 2-3yrs alone it's heading that way. 7 of the top 10 times have happened in 2011 & 2012 combined, and all 10 of them since late 2008. With more cash on the line there's more to gain which pushes people to reach limits that a non-cash motivation alone would not. That and Makau's 2:03:38 is pretty darn close to a 2:02 already. Man that's fast...
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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby ian » Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:26 pm

Records like this tend to move sprodically in clusters. Given the near-ideal racing conditions that accompanied the 2011 performances, we might be in for a bit of stagnation. I think the biggest key to the recent drops in time was the migration of top talent up to marathon distance at a younger age, rather than as a second act to a successful track career. Now that these younger runners are in the mix, I'm not sure what will cause the next big drop; at this level of performance, 2:03:38 is still a long ways away from sub-2:02, much less sub-2, and I'd bet on the "over".

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby jamix » Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:10 pm

Here is a bit of plausible reasoning for predicting the best performance that the human body is physiologically capable of :P

Consider an individual with just the following two traits (which are both individually within the upper end of human limits);

1) A runner whose VO2max = 90

-The is certainly possible and even some skiers have scored as high as 97

2) A runner whose so efficient/economical that his VDOT score (see Daniels Running Formula) is 10 points higher than his VO2max .

- #2 has also been documented in at least one elite runner. Derek Clayton had a VO2max = 69.7, but his marathon pr corresponded to a VDOT of nearly 80!

..........................

Conclusion, its possible for the human body to have a VDOT score of 100 (90 + 10), which corresponds to a marathon performance just a tad north of "1 hour and 45 minutes" (over 18 minutes faster than the current WR :shock: )!
2013 GOALS:

- Compete in the "Early Bird Sprint Triathlon" in May
- Run a 5km pb during the "Bushtukah Canada Day Road Race"
- Complete an Olympic distance triathlon
- Cycle > 33 km / hr during the cycle portion of a Sprint Triathlon.
- Stay healthy and happy

Races

April 28th: Manotick 10km (40:16)
May 18th: Ottawa Early Bird Sprint Triathlon (DNF)
June 8th: Riverkeeper SuperSprint (2nd overall)
July 1st: Bushtukah Canada Day 5km (18:37)

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby ian » Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:13 pm

jamix wrote:Conclusion, its possible for the human body to have a VDOT score of 100 (90 + 10), which corresponds to a marathon performance just a tad north of "1 hour and 45 minutes" (over 18 minutes faster than the current WR :shock: )!

This is interesting, partly because of the shock of the number, but partly because it represents a much different route to breaking a record than is usually assumed. Specifically, this is a statistical argument, asserting that if we wait long enough, we'll eventually see such an extreme outlier that the modern records will be shattered. On the other hand, it implicitly suggests that 2:05 will always be an elite time because most of the elite runners of the future would not be extreme outliers any more than they are today. (And given the current state of modern sport, would such an extreme outlier ever escape the suspicions of PEDs?)

Looking at the progression of world records (in practically any sport) over the past century shows a different perspective: once a record is broken, the entire sport tends to follow along, often due to advances in training and equipment. We now have hundreds of full-time marathon runners, so presumably training volume has basically been maximized. Shoe technology might not be completely optimized, but it's probably now affecting marathon times at the level of seconds rather than minutes. The two biggest things that I can come up with to knock the world record down a bit more are:
(1) Running surface: changing from the asphalt of urban streets to a rubber track surface could be worth a minute or two. Would some race ever be willing to foot the bill to lay down a couple hundred thousand of square feet of track in the pursuit of a WR?
(2) Drafting: the 2011 WRs featured large pacing groups out to 30K. At these running speeds, air resistance is a significant limitation on running economy. Future records are going to need a lot of cooperation.

So: let's start with an athletic outlier, not at the 1:45 level, but just fast enough to be the top dog in the sport under current conditions (say, with a low 2:03 WR). Then find a benevolent billionaire who pays for a ten foot wide rubber track along the Berlin course and pays the top 10 marathoners a million dollars each to run a 2:00 pace past 30K (with the outlier tucked in behind), perhaps with the help of some outlandish plexiglass windscreen on the pace car. On a perfect day, this could work.

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby jamix » Wed Nov 21, 2012 6:31 pm

So: let's start with an athletic outlier, not at the 1:45 level, but just fast enough to be the top dog in the sport under current conditions (say, with a low 2:03 WR). Then find a benevolent billionaire who pays for a ten foot wide rubber track along the Berlin course and pays the top 10 marathoners a million dollars each to run a 2:00 pace past 30K (with the outlier tucked in behind), perhaps with the help of some outlandish plexiglass windscreen on the pace car. On a perfect day, this could work.


It's tough to guess how much faster a straight rubber track would be. Interestingly though, Mosop's WR at 30km was run around a track. But even if one tried to guess by say comparing the 10,000 meter track record to the 10km road WR, it wouldn't be the same because a track has centripetal forces which negatively affects performance.

On the other hand, it implicitly suggests that 2:05 will always be an elite time because most of the elite runners of the future would not be extreme outliers any more than they are today.


If in the future, hundreds of people become capable of breaking 2:05, then the few among this group who can go 2:02 and 2:03 will be the new outliers. The guys who can just barely get under 2:05 aren't going to look like anything special anymore.

Looking at the progression of world records (in practically any sport) over the past century shows a different perspective: once a record is broken, the entire sport tends to follow along,


The women's WR for marathon hasn't followed this!
2013 GOALS:

- Compete in the "Early Bird Sprint Triathlon" in May
- Run a 5km pb during the "Bushtukah Canada Day Road Race"
- Complete an Olympic distance triathlon
- Cycle > 33 km / hr during the cycle portion of a Sprint Triathlon.
- Stay healthy and happy

Races

April 28th: Manotick 10km (40:16)
May 18th: Ottawa Early Bird Sprint Triathlon (DNF)
June 8th: Riverkeeper SuperSprint (2nd overall)
July 1st: Bushtukah Canada Day 5km (18:37)

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby ian » Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:15 pm

jamix wrote:
On the other hand, it implicitly suggests that 2:05 will always be an elite time because most of the elite runners of the future would not be extreme outliers any more than they are today.

If in the future, hundreds of people become capable of breaking 2:05, then the few among this group who can go 2:02 and 2:03 will be the new outliers. The guys who can just barely get under 2:05 aren't going to look like anything special anymore.

This is mixing up the "statistical outlier" versus "natural progression" aspects that I was referring to. The fact that we can have dozens of guys (and pehaps eventually, hundreds) running 2:05 isn't because human beings are suddenly evolving higher VO2 readings but because there are more and more runners (who are genetically comparable to those of previous generations) taking advantage of the sort of lifelong full-time training that is afforded by modern prize money. A true statistical outlier is just as likely to emerge right away as in the distant future.

Looking at the progression of world records (in practically any sport) over the past century shows a different perspective: once a record is broken, the entire sport tends to follow along,

The women's WR for marathon hasn't followed this!

Maybe Paula's your outlier. That said, the new wave of female marathoners (Keitany in particular) is catching up quickly, and in hindsight it might not seem like there was too much of a delay. Many WRs in track and field have stalled for a decade or two before inching forward again, and even during the gap between records, there tends to be a gradual accumulation of athletes who are surpassing the old WR.

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Re: 30km World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any n

Postby fingerboy » Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:25 pm

oink wrote:
fingerboy wrote:I have no doubt we will see the 2:02 marathons soon, and probably sub 2 in our lifetime. The person may have to have part cheetah and part camel genes but that's another story.


Hmmm....you think so? I doubt that will ever happen. Just because someone ran a 1:26 30km doesn't mean they can maintain that pace for another 12.2km. There is the physical and psychological aspects that come into play here, and hopefully that person wasn't on what Lance Armstrong (EPO et al) was on

A 2:02 marathon? Not in this lifetime.


I can never say for certain. But the likelihood is high. Have you looked at this ever:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_w ... rogression

The main reason for the quicker progression is a higher incidence of runners. However the world is not all discovered yet. We will never reach a point where every human trains for a marathon peak from cradle to age 40 and teaches their children to as well etc.

We have hundreds of thousands of marathoners now. Maybe millions but what is 1,000,000/7,000,000,000? 0.0143% We're certainly a LONG way off to capping human potential. I mean what if someone like David Rudisha moved up in distance... if you can run 800m fast you can run a marathon fast... totally different than a sprinter becoming a marathoner. He's really a non relevant example, other than to say there are very talented runners who are not tested in the marathon.

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby MichaelMc » Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:09 pm

jamix wrote:Here is a bit of plausible reasoning for predicting the best performance that the human body is physiologically capable of :P

Consider an individual with just the following two traits (which are both individually within the upper end of human limits);

1) A runner whose VO2max = 90

-The is certainly possible and even some skiers have scored as high as 97

2) A runner whose so efficient/economical that his VDOT score (see Daniels Running Formula) is 10 points higher than his VO2max .

- #2 has also been documented in at least one elite runner. Derek Clayton had a VO2max = 69.7, but his marathon pr corresponded to a VDOT of nearly 80!..........................
Conclusion, its possible for the human body to have a VDOT score of 100 (90 + 10), which corresponds to a marathon performance just a tad north of "1 hour and 45 minutes" (over 18 minutes faster than the current WR :shock: )!


There is a good deal of evidence that high VO2max and high efficiency don't occur in the same individual, so we may not just be looking for two outliers, we may be looking for something which cannot (naturally) occur. Also, for reference, you can't take a VO2max from one activity and compare it to another: skiers use their arms more, so they can use more oxygen and hit higher VO2max.

There may also be limiting factors (heat dissipation) that your two factor model doesn't recognize.

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby jamix » Thu Dec 06, 2012 2:02 pm

There is a good deal of evidence that high VO2max and high efficiency don't occur in the same individual, so we may not just be looking for two outliers, we may be looking for something which cannot (naturally) occur.


I'm not sure, but I think Daniel's may have already incorporated this loss of efficiency in his tables. I have his book, and just look at the marathon predicted times for a VDOT of 50 and comparing to the one for a VDOT of 75 say, we see that the 75 value has a marathon time that is only 42% faster. On the other hand, if these two individuals had the same efficiency then this value should be 50% faster (as Vdot = 75 means this guy can run 50% faster than someone with Vdot = 50).
2013 GOALS:

- Compete in the "Early Bird Sprint Triathlon" in May
- Run a 5km pb during the "Bushtukah Canada Day Road Race"
- Complete an Olympic distance triathlon
- Cycle > 33 km / hr during the cycle portion of a Sprint Triathlon.
- Stay healthy and happy

Races

April 28th: Manotick 10km (40:16)
May 18th: Ottawa Early Bird Sprint Triathlon (DNF)
June 8th: Riverkeeper SuperSprint (2nd overall)
July 1st: Bushtukah Canada Day 5km (18:37)

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby Blair » Thu Dec 06, 2012 8:42 pm

To throw in my two cents worth,

I feel the two hour marathon barrier will fall much like the four minute mile did. Several runners will bump up against it (2:01's, 2:02’s, 2:03’s) and people will say sub 2:00:00 can’t be done. Then along comes some guy and throws down a 1:59:59. And then we’ll see several more sub 2:00 because it will become possible.

John Landy tried several times for a sub 4:00 mile and concluded that it just wasn’t humanly possible. After Bannister proved it was possible, Landy went on to break 4:00 on six different occasions.

The body is capable of way more than the mind thinks it is.

I really hope I'm around to see a sub two hour marathon.

Blair (who hasn't broken the three hour barrier - yet)
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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby MichaelMc » Fri Dec 07, 2012 12:29 pm

jamix wrote:
There is a good deal of evidence that high VO2max and high efficiency don't occur in the same individual, so we may not just be looking for two outliers, we may be looking for something which cannot (naturally) occur.


I'm not sure, but I think Daniel's may have already incorporated this loss of efficiency in his tables. I have his book, and just look at the marathon predicted times for a VDOT of 50 and comparing to the one for a VDOT of 75 say, we see that the 75 value has a marathon time that is only 42% faster. On the other hand, if these two individuals had the same efficiency then this value should be 50% faster (as Vdot = 75 means this guy can run 50% faster tquote="jamix"]
There is a good deal of evidence that high VO2max and high efficiency don't occur in the same individual, so we may not just be looking for two outliers, we may be looking for something which cannot (naturally) occur.


Vdot doesn't calculate for efficiency OR VO2max, it is a simple peformance measure. Runners with high VO2max and low efficiency have the same Vdot as those with low max and high efficiency if their performance is identical. Read "Oxygen power" if you're interested on how it is calculated by Daniels and Gilbert. They are intersecting curves, so 70 isn't twice as fast as 35 either.

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby jamix » Fri Dec 07, 2012 1:31 pm

MichaelMc wrote:
jamix wrote:
There is a good deal of evidence that high VO2max and high efficiency don't occur in the same individual, so we may not just be looking for two outliers, we may be looking for something which cannot (naturally) occur.


I'm not sure, but I think Daniel's may have already incorporated this loss of efficiency in his tables. I have his book, and just look at the marathon predicted times for a VDOT of 50 and comparing to the one for a VDOT of 75 say, we see that the 75 value has a marathon time that is only 42% faster. On the other hand, if these two individuals had the same efficiency then this value should be 50% faster (as Vdot = 75 means this guy can run 50% faster tquote="jamix"]
There is a good deal of evidence that high VO2max and high efficiency don't occur in the same individual, so we may not just be looking for two outliers, we may be looking for something which cannot (naturally) occur.


Vdot doesn't calculate for efficiency OR VO2max, it is a simple peformance measure. Runners with high VO2max and low efficiency have the same Vdot as those with low max and high efficiency if their performance is identical. Read "Oxygen power" if you're interested on how it is calculated by Daniels and Gilbert. They are intersecting curves, so 70 isn't twice as fast as 35 either.


I have his second book. However it really looks like Daniels designed Vdot such that If you take a large sample of highly trained individuals and measured their VO2max, you'd find that on average it would be the same as they're VDOT. For some Vo2 > Vd, for other Vo2 < Vd, but on average they'd be the same.

If you know someone's VDOT as well as they're actual VO2max, then you can calculate how efficient they are.
2013 GOALS:

- Compete in the "Early Bird Sprint Triathlon" in May
- Run a 5km pb during the "Bushtukah Canada Day Road Race"
- Complete an Olympic distance triathlon
- Cycle > 33 km / hr during the cycle portion of a Sprint Triathlon.
- Stay healthy and happy

Races

April 28th: Manotick 10km (40:16)
May 18th: Ottawa Early Bird Sprint Triathlon (DNF)
June 8th: Riverkeeper SuperSprint (2nd overall)
July 1st: Bushtukah Canada Day 5km (18:37)

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Re: 30K World Record: Does it bring the 2:02 Marathon any ne

Postby ian » Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:28 pm

jamix wrote: it really looks like Daniels designed Vdot such that If you take a large sample of highly trained individuals and measured their VO2max, you'd find that on average it would be the same as they're VDOT. For some Vo2 > Vd, for other Vo2 < Vd, but on average they'd be the same.

Correct: Strictly as a relative performance measure, VDOT could just as easily have used other number ranges but Daniels has calibrated things so as to roughly align with VO2 values. It probably doesn't hurt that this range is really convenient too: the numbers aren't overly large and most people would never need decimals.


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