Running Mania

Here's some stats I compiled from QCM:

Runners under 4 hours (128):
Average split 13:33
Minimum split 00:31
Maximum split 35:11

Runners over 4 hours (282):
Average split 29:57
Minimum split -17:25
Maximum split 1:21:50

So no negative splits for the faster runners, and quite a bit more variation among the slower runners which makes sense to me.

Winner and second place had 2 and 4 min splits respectively but 4th and 6th were both around 10 min. 9th and 10th were in the 18 min range.

Interesting-- but I have more work for you.

Not to be a stats geek or anything but it would be interesting to compare to past years when heat wasn't as much of an issue.

As a smaller local marathon it's hard to tell exactly how unusual those numbers are on their own.

Regarding this year's race, Brendan told me he was very pleased with only being +2 minutes on the second half. He's had several races in the last few years where he runs the first half with one or two other guys and then pulls away in the second half for a two minute negative split. For him, then, this year's heat was worth 4 minutes on the second half. There are quite a few other semi-speedy guys I see on this year's finishers list with 15-30 minute positive splits who usually are within a few minutes of even. Interestingly, I noticed that a couple of the small group of runners who managed to run evenly had traveled from Quebec where, presumably, they would have trained in warmer conditions.

ian wrote:Regarding this year's race, Brendan told me he was very pleased with only being +2 minutes on the second half. He's had several races in the last few years where he runs the first half with one or two other guys and then pulls away in the second half for a two minute negative split. For him, then, this year's heat was worth 4 minutes on the second half.

That looked like his plan when I saw him - he was at the back of a 3-man pack. But that was not even 50 minutes into the race and it was still quite comfortable. He also had the advantage of being fast enough to finish before the heat got really ugly. I note that as the times went past 3 hours the splits got generally worse.

Jwolf wrote:
Not to be a stats geek or anything

NERDS!!!!

Joe Dwarf wrote:He also had the advantage of being fast enough to finish before the heat got really ugly. I note that as the times went past 3 hours the splits got generally worse.

This brings up an interesting question. While there's no doubt that the fastest runners avoided the worst of the heat, it's also usually the case that the fastest runners have more mileage (and often more experience too) that allow them to run more evenly in any conditions. I suppose that one of the ways that these hypotheses could be tested would be to look at the splits for a race with an afternoon start so that the temperature decreases as the race goes on. This year's Vegas race starts at 4pm, though I don't expect it to be uncomfortably warm in December. In 2002, Edmonton started its marathon at 5pm on the solstice ("race the twilight" was the theme) and it was 35 degrees; I lost 13 pounds running a 1:50 half-marathon that day and Brendan lowered his marathon PB to 4:49.

From 2010:
Runners under 4 hours (177):
Average split 9:20
Minimum split -8:24 (21 negative splits)
Maximum split 37:57

Runners over 4 hours (317):
Average split 19:13
Minimum split -31:34 (10 negative splits)
Maximum split 1:28:41

There were only 8 negatives in 2011, all in the slower group.