Comparing winter race results to summer race

[grimskot]

Ran my first ever Winnipeg Hypothermic Half on Sunday, and did a wee bit better than I expected. Now I'm wondering how to compare the results to half marathons I ran in summer & fall 2010. I'd like to assess whether I've gained, maintained or (heaven forbid!) lost fitness over the winter.

My HH time was about 10 minutes slower than my Intrepid Dezine half marathon time, or about 28 seconds/km slower. Likewise my HH time was about 3 minutes slower than my Try A Trail #5 22km time, or about 25 seconds/km slower. (Assuming I have my math right, of course. ) Given that winter running is generally slower than summer running due to cold & wind & snowy surfaces, that's to be expected. But can anyone help me quantify how much slower would be reasonable?

I'm prepared to accept that there is no way to make a fair comparison other than a purely subjective one. I felt like I ran a good race, with a hard effort and a strong finishing kick. I felt much the same way after finishing the Resolution Run on January 1st, so I seem to be building some good successes in 2011. Still & all, I'd like some indication how I'm doing this winter.

Thanks

[Joggernot]

Hello grimskot,
I also ran the Wpg HH on the weekend and ran the Try a Trail 22k last fall. My HH was also 3 minutes slower than Try a Trail but I lost 3 to 4 minutes to a train crossing. It is really hard to compare a winter half, to a fall trail 22K, to a spring 1/2 marathon run on pavement. I have run the Hypo Halfs about 7 times in the past and aside from 1 year when it was very warm and the course was run almost entirely on roads, my times were slower than even my full marathon split time in May or June. If you felt good during your run on the weekend I think that is a good gauge of where you are at fitness wise. My guess is that you would gain 3 to 5 minutes if the race on Sunday was in warmer weather with good footing on pavement. To me it sounds like you are on the right track and if you run a 1/2 marathon in the spring (WPS, Fargo or Intrepid Dezine) you should be good to go. A 10K race like Camp Quality on April 2 or the Puma 10K on April 10 would be a good indicator of your potential 1/2 marathon time.

best of luck

[mas_runner]

Just too many variables to be able to know for sure.

The only constant is you, how did you feel, if the race itself felt pretty comfortable then you should be able to go faster, whether you can go more than 10 minutes faster when spring/summer arrives (bringing a whole new bunch of variable) is something that you will get a better handle of when you train in the spring/summer.

Sorry I cannot be more precise.

Good luck!

[Joe Dwarf]

I think the only thing you can say for sure is that you expect to be somewhat slower given the same fitness. I was over 4 minutes slower when I ran the HH here in Saskatoon compared to my PB last August. It was perfect conditions in August but it was also pretty darn good for the HH - a little below freezing, mostly hardpacked snow or pavement. I think if it had been current conditions of -25 where I'd have to deal with more clothes, breathing through a mask, etc, I would have been much slower.

[grimskot]

I figured this would be the case. If nothing else, I've got a baseline for next year's Hypothermic Half.

Joggernot, you mentioned getting caught by the train crossing. I saw that train, but it had finished crossing b4 I got there. No planning on my part -- just the luck of the plodder.

[daddy_runner]

I find it hard to compare winter times to summer times. I just look at winter times as "I can do at least this well in the summer when I'm wearing less clothing and on good footing".

I also find the HH to be a good judge of your current fitness level when compared to previous years. The obvious caveats there are you need to do some mental calculus to add or subtract depending upon amount of snow, temperature, and trains.

BTW, how come you guys didn't introduce yourselves before the race? I had extra beer!