What Pace to run

[mcshame]

Got a 20k race coming up this weekend in Vermont. 10 weeks away from a marathon 3:15:59 attempt. That says I should run a 4:25 pace half @ 1:32:56 which is very close to my 1/2 PB (within seconds).

So...what do I do with the 20k race....Give a 4:20 pace, 4:15 pace? Or go even harder...I have 2 10k races in the plan prior to the marathon. If this race is hilly, pace targets won't matter much.

[QuickChick]

This would be a good opportunity, IMO, to test out what your current half-marathon pace should be. Don't start out with a number that you have to run. Go out at a pace that feels hard, but that you can sustain. Make sure you're breathing hard but you can still say a few words. See what that pace is after all that training you have done. I bet it will be quite a bit faster than your 1:32 pace.

[mcshame]

hmmmm Don't use my Garmin....That's worked before.....

[Jwolf]

Is it a road race or is it on trails? That will affect your pace, even if it's not a technical trail...
(I only ask because 20k is not a common road race distance)

But in general I do agree that you should race it without a "predicted" goal in mind. If it's on roads I'd expect that to be faster than your pb half-marathon pace at this point.

[SteveF]

Definitely time to test out the training. No paces. Run it as a test.

Heres an approximate profile. Not too bad considering where you run daily. Enjoy the small town feel and blueberry sundaes!

[ian]

I'm going to give a suggestion that goes against the predominant "go for it" sentiment and advise that you run this at a pace somewhere between 4:25/K (known 21K pace) and 4:37/K (goal 42K pace). Why? Because there might be a small tradeoff between maximizing your chances of running a BQ this year and optimizing your times. You've made wonderful progress this year but the BQ isn't a sure thing and I think you'll get more benefit out of running near this pace in a race environment than you would by going all out and either (1) having a sensational race, thereby tempting you to raise your goals, or (2) having a poor race, thereby leaving you to wonder where your fitness really is. 20K at or slightly above MP, without a taper, is a high quality training run which will increase your confidence and teach you something useful for the big day.

[QuickChick]

I see your point, Ian, but I think it could hurt the confidence more if a run close to MP doesn't go that well. I have run half marathons before at MP and gotten really psyched out when I was pretty tired at the end (OMG how am I going to go twice as far?). I think he will gain more by having the feeling of going all out and racing. I'll be interested to hear what you decide, Lorne. There are reasons to do it either way.

[mcshame]

I'm going to give a suggestion that goes against the predominant "go for it" sentiment and advise that you run this at a pace somewhere between 4:25/K (known 21K pace) and 4:37/K (goal 42K pace). Why? Because there might be a small tradeoff between maximizing your chances of running a BQ this year and optimizing your times. You've made wonderful progress this year but the BQ isn't a sure thing and I think you'll get more benefit out of running near this pace in a race environment than you would by going all out and either (1) having a sensational race, thereby tempting you to raise your goals, or (2) having a poor race, thereby leaving you to wonder where your fitness really is. 20K at or slightly above MP, without a taper, is a high quality training run which will increase your confidence and teach you something useful for the big day.

On Aug 1, did a training run for 24k @ 4:40 (marathon pace).

[mcshame]

I'm going to give a suggestion that goes against the predominant "go for it" sentiment and advise that you run this at a pace somewhere between 4:25/K (known 21K pace) and 4:37/K (goal 42K pace). Why? Because there might be a small tradeoff between maximizing your chances of running a BQ this year and optimizing your times. You've made wonderful progress this year but the BQ isn't a sure thing and I think you'll get more benefit out of running near this pace in a race environment than you would by going all out and either (1) having a sensational race, thereby tempting you to raise your goals, or (2) having a poor race, thereby leaving you to wonder where your fitness really is. 20K at or slightly above MP, without a taper, is a high quality training run which will increase your confidence and teach you something useful for the big day.

To address the two concerns;

If I was to have a great race, I still think the fear of the bonk at the end of a marathon will keep my race goal to qualify for Boston. I was weakening in the 3:28 marathon so I think my ego is relatively in check. If I loose sight of this, please feel free to smack me down!

As for the fitness, I know my fitness is good (ohhh, ohhh, the ego issue ). But I'm a pretty hard headed guy, it's going to take more than one bad race to affect my confidence.

As this is not an A race, and a weird distance at that, I wouldn't want to kill myself on it. However, on my half marathon in April, I felt I could have done better and I've been training for another 3 months since that. I honestly can't see myself doing a MP 4:40 since I have MP runs in my training. Since my last half, I've been wanting to hold a 4:20 pace...or sub....a 1:30 half, isn't that a nice round number . That would mean a 4:16 for 20k, faster than my old, outdated 10k pace. A 4:20 would be a 1:31 1/2M....

I don't race that often compared to others...I'd hate to miss out an opportunity to race. Even though it's a new distance and an automatic PB, I wouldn't take credit for it unless it extrapolated into a PB over a half marathon distance.