Strategy for sub-2hr HM

[PinkLady]

Wow, I sure feel out of place posting here....!!

I am a meticulous planner and I'm trying to figure out an effective training strategy to get a sub-2hr half come April. I'm certainly not one to leave it to luck or guts!

I am going to continue zone 1 low heart rate base building until the end of the year. By the end of next week I will be at 40-45km, and by the end of the month I will be at 50-60km/weekly. I run 5 days a week right now - one long run with 10&1's done at the RR, one tempo (4-5km), and 3 easy runs that will be built up in distance to about 9km each. I also do yoga once a week for flexibility and core strength, and spin class once a week for leg strength. The long runs I'm doing in the following sequence: 14km, 16km, 18km, 20km, drop back to 14km, and repeat.

Starting January, I would like to get serious about getting into a regiment to get me a 1:50-1:59 (need that minute leeway! ) half. I have only been using the RR plans so far, and all of the RR training plans do tempos on Tues, and hill repeats on Wed. The Wed workouts eventually turn into track workouts for speed (repeats of 1km). I HATED the track workouts !! Mentally I found them boring and exhausting, but that's probably because all we ever did were track workouts. It probably wouldn't be so bad if we did more variety, but all we did was 1km intervals (ie. 3 repeats one week, then 4 repeats the next, then 5, etc. Blah)

The RR also strictly teaches 10&1's for racing. I've been looking at the paces on the 1:50 schedule, and if I did 10&1's I'd have to run the running intervals pretty darned fast.......about 5:13/km. If I ran continuous the overall pace needs to be 5:27/km.

So.....I need help!! Should I train with 10&1's, or try to train for continuous? Is there a difference? Mentally I liked the walk breaks because it broke the race up in chunks, but then again I'm sure with enough training the continuous would feel just as natural. I'm just freaking out a bit because the running segments have to be FAST to make my goal time if I have walk breaks. If I train for continuous, I would be stuck doing it on my own as I don't think any RR has pace groups training continuous.

Also, I would really appreciate advice on how to train in the new year in terms of what I should be doing to get my goal - what speedwork to do, how often, etc. Should I still be doing tempos, drills, and so forth? I did find doing tempo runs on Tues and then hills or speed on Wed were really tough and the back-to-back hard workouts meant my legs never recovered well. Should I start adding faster-than-easy runs, and how often? What key speed workouts should I make sure I do?

Oie, sorry for all the questions....I'm trying to get a handle on all of this stuff, and my head hurts!

[scrumhalfgirl]

Two things I would say -

1 - I found that getting in longer than race distance LSDs really helped me bring my times down. When 21 k doesn't seem long any more, because you've run 25 a number of times, it is easier to go faster over the shorter distance.

2 - There is a BIG difference between a 1:59:XX half and a 1:50. I would recommend doing a 10k race leading up to your goal half so that you have a good sense of what you can realistically expect to achieve on race day. If you go out at 1:50 pace, when you only have the fitness for 1:59, it might not be pretty (learned this one the hard way!).

Good luck!

[BJH]

How did the army run feel? If that is your PB, a six month timeline for a 7.5 minute improvement on a half marathon is a pretty agressive goal.

Over distance LSDs are a good suggestion. Maybe lengthen out your tempo runs a bit. I found losing 30 lbs and running an ultra helped.

The run/walk thing is personal prefernce. I haven't used that for a half marathon in years since I find I get into a groove better with continuous running.

YMMV.

[mas_runner]

We've already chatted a bit by PM, but one thing I would say is to figure out paces based on your current fitness and not freak out about your proposed race paces for now.

I managed to go from 2:06 to 1:56 to 1:48 for the half, but it was a gradual thing and when I was at 2:06 I thought, "wow, there is no way I can run 21 continuous kilometers at a pace of less than 5:42...".

It will surprise you just how much you will improve if you just concentrate on the paces you have to do now and not worry about those in the future. Saying that, I would run a few 5 and/or 10km races during your training schedule, so you can see your improvement and adjust your training paces accordingly...

[PinkLady]

How did the army run feel? If that is your PB, a six month timeline for a 7.5 minute improvement on a half marathon is a pretty agressive goal.

Well, the Army Half felt pretty good - until I sprained my ankle! Yeah, so the bum ankle made the last 11k sort of a crapshoot. When I got to the 10k marker I was just settling into my groove, and it was feeling easy. I always speed up in the second half of a long distance, so I think if I didn't hurt my ankle I would have taken at least a few minutes off my time, likely in the 2:03-2:05 range. I was about 2.5 minutes ahead on the splits (I was wearing a 2:08 paceband) and I usually sprint in the last 1K, so if I hadn't busted my foot I think that sounds about right. I lost all my time after I had to hobble/walk more in the second half with the injury.

I think I can definitely do longer LSD's. They're my favorite run anyways, so it's no pain at all to do more. I'll take long and easy over short and hard anyday! I probably should do longer tempos.....too bad I hate them so much.

Maybe I'll play with the longer LSD's and try continuous and see how it feels.

[PinkLady]

I managed to go from 2:06 to 1:56 to 1:48 for the half, but it was a gradual thing and when I was at 2:06 I thought, "wow, there is no way I can run 21 continuous kilometers at a pace of less than 5:42...".

Very true. I only started running last March, and when I look back at struggling to run my first 5km continuous, it was an all out effort at over 7min/km pace. I remember my very first 5K at NCM in May this year, when 6:40 was heart thumping fast.

Thanks for reminding me of this! Funny how easy it is to get in our own way and say things like "oh, that's impossible for me". I'm being smart this time around, and if my HR goes too high for the workout that day, I slow down until I'm in the right HR range. It's kept me honest, that's for sure.

Drats, there's that racing thing again... I dread short races - they hurt!!

[La]

In 2008 I went from a HM PB of 2:06 to a 1:59. I did my first HM (2:32) in 1999, my first marathon (4:55) in 2001, and my first Ironman in 2003, so I had a lot of running/racing under my belt before I finally went sub-2. I'd been running my HM in the 2:06-2:10 range for a while.

The things that had the biggest impact:

1) As scrummy & BJH said: over-distance long runs. However, I had run 3 marathons and 2 Ironman Tris, so those distances were not new to me. But if you've already done a HM, you could safely get your long runs up to 22-24K and be fine. Run them slowly - don't try to race them. The goal is to get the distance done.

2) As BJH said, losing weight (in my case it was just 10lbs) made a difference. This year, I had gained some weight back and was only able to manage 2:05.

3) No longer doing 10:1. That doesn't mean I didn't take walk breaks (I had to walk to get gels in me, but it wasn't on a prescribed time schedule). I usually took my nutrition at ~6K intervals (6/12/18K) and would take a 30-sec walk break to ensure I got the gel and water in me, but depending on where the aid stations were (and the topography of the course), I would vary it. I don't like taking walk breaks on a downhill because that's where I really fly and I find I waste the downhill by walking. And I like to take them as close to the aid station as possible so that I use their water and don't have to carry my own. I'm not opposed to walk breaks; what I'm opposed to is taking a walk break every 11 minutes because your watch beeps at you. 10:1 is not carved in stone. It's not a magic formula. However, if you want to continue doing your long runs with the RR and they are doing 10:1, this does not mean that you have to RACE with 10:1. The LSD is about distance and time on your feet. You can still do your LSDs with 10:1 and yet race without them (as long as you're not doing 10:1 for all your other weekly runs).

4) Choose your race appropriately. Does it suit your running style? Is there a chance that bad weather (e.g., snow/ice/wind) could have an impact on your pace? If on race day conditions are not ideal for a PB, then don't go in expecting one. I was lucky that the weather cooperated both times I ran 1:59.

5) Use a pace band and course markings to gauge your time; don't rely on the Garmin. I checked my splits every 3K, so I would know if I was on track. I still wore the Garmin (had it showing time, distance and average pace), but didn't rely on it because it's not 100% accurate. You have to hope that the course markings are accurate.

6) Related to #5: Stay away from the pace bunnies. Like the Garmin, don't necessarily assume that they are on pace and on track. Don't freak yourself out because you are in front or behind them. Use/trust your own watch/pacing. Plus, a large group like that (who are all taking walk breaks) can get in your way, especially if you're not taking them. I almost got stabbed in the gut by the pace bunny's stupid sign-pole he was running with: I was trying to pass him and he was swinging the pole behind him.

7) Switch up one of your mid-week easy runs and make it a 9-12K run. The mid-week semi-long steady-state run was really good for me. That way, you don't have to worry about the fact that you are doing your long runs at a significantly slower pace than your planned race pace. This is the time/place to practice race pace running, not on the LSD.

8 ) Mix up your speed work. Don't do the same thing every week. As you said, it gets boring if all you are doing is 1K intervals.

9) Go rogue. I still run at the RR on Wednesday and Sundays, but I do my own thing. When I'm training for something I have my own plan and will stick to it, regardless of what others are doing. My local store is a bit different because not everyone who runs there is in a clinic, so often I'll have people come along and do my workout because they don't have anything else planned. If you're in a clinic, you kind of have to do what the rest of the group is doing. Depending on your leader, you may be able to influence them to let you lead one of the workouts (but not all leaders will be open to this).

[PinkLady]

Wow, THANK YOU La! I really appreciate you taking the time to post this.

I am going to reread it and fully absorb what you wrote....but just to address a few points that jumped out at me:

- Happily, I'm at the lowest healthy weight for me. I do tend to drop to around 110lb when I'm running a lot, and I'm leery of going lower....my wrists are 6.25" around, so I'm not really the smallest framed person, even if I am short. I'm still nursing too, so I don't want to risk that.

- taking the pace off my Garmin display has made it a lot easier to really go "easy". If I leave pace on my Garmin, I get this stupid thing where I get competitive with myself. So now I just have my heart rate on there, and it's a good run if I stick to my target heart rate for the day.

-you're totally right about not going with pace groups during the race. I didn't, and it was great.....between my Garmin and my pace band and the km markers on course, I was fine. I checked my splits every km marker, and I only really used the Garmin to make sure I wasn't slowing down.

-I'd train more on my own, but for the LSD's I'm torn....I like doing my own thing, but it's simply not safe for a woman alone to be running the quieter more scenic routes around here. There have been a lot of scary cases on the trails, even in broad daylight. Sucks. So if I'm on my own, I'm stuck with main roads, which bores me to tears.......

-I am going to work on trying to go continuous. I'm planning LSD's which are quite a bit longer than the RR clinic schedule, so the portions I do on my own I will try continuous and see how I feel. I don't do any other runs with 10&'1s, and my midweek runs are going to get longer, so that'll give me practice at running continuously too. I suppose nearer to goal races I will need to do my LSD entirely on my own to do the whole thing continuous, so my legs get used to a nice long stretch of, say, 20km without a lot of walk breaks.

[La]

Although it's a whole other debate, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking walk breaks during long runs and even races. However, being regimented to a 10:1 schedule it a bit too rigid, IMO. And contrary to what some people will say, I think you CAN train your LSDs with 10:1 (since you prefer to run with the group, and they are all doing 10:1) and race WITHOUT them (or race by taking fewer walk breaks at less-prescribed intervals).

As people have said in other posts, running is not rocket science. It doesn't have to be complicated. Sometimes we get our heads too much in the game and forget to let our bodies do what we've trained them to do. There are many paths to the same goal; you just have to find the one that works for you.

[mas_runner]

Although it's a whole other debate, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking walk breaks during long runs and even races. However, being regimented to a 10:1 schedule it a bit too rigid, IMO. And contrary to what some people will say, I think you CAN train your LSDs with 10:1 (since you prefer to run with the group, and they are all doing 10:1) and race WITHOUT them (or race by taking fewer walk breaks at less-prescribed intervals).

That was a big thing for me, to realize that I didn't need to be walking for a minute every 10 minutes. When I do LSDs I typically run 3, 4 or 5 kms and then take a 30s - 1 min walk break, but for racing, it is run all the way.

[mas_runner]

Drats, there's that racing thing again... I dread short races - they hurt!!

Oh but it is such a glorious pain...

Seriously though, I find racing those short ones during a HM training cycle really helps with the fitness (both physical and mental), it gets hard in all races the more you learn to fight through it, that the pain/discomfort doesn't last forever, the more mentally tough you get to drive yourself onwards towards your time goal...

[La]

Although it's a whole other debate, I don't think there's anything wrong with taking walk breaks during long runs and even races. However, being regimented to a 10:1 schedule it a bit too rigid, IMO. And contrary to what some people will say, I think you CAN train your LSDs with 10:1 (since you prefer to run with the group, and they are all doing 10:1) and race WITHOUT them (or race by taking fewer walk breaks at less-prescribed intervals).

That was a big thing for me, to realize that I didn't need to be walking for a minute every 10 minutes. When I do LSDs I typically run 3, 4 or 5 kms and then take a 30s - 1 min walk break, but for racing, it is run all the way.

I think flexibility is a very important skill to have. If you're so regimented that you HAVE to race exactly the way you train, or HAVE to take one minute every 10 to walk, you are doing yourself a disservice. In a lot of ways I think it's our minds we have to train to accept that you can make changes on the fly to respond to external factors, and that by changing it won't send your entire world into a tailspin. The 10:1 method has helped a lot of people run longer/father than they ever thought they could, but it has also done people a disservice by making them somewhat dependent (psychologically, more so than physically) on that approach.

[PinkLady]

I think flexibility is a very important skill to have. If you're so regimented that you HAVE to race exactly the way you train, or HAVE to take one minute every 10 to walk, you are doing yourself a disservice. In a lot of ways I think it's our minds we have to train to accept that you can make changes on the fly to respond to external factors, and that by changing it won't send your entire world into a tailspin. The 10:1 method has helped a lot of people run longer/father than they ever thought they could, but it has also done people a disservice by making them somewhat dependent (psychologically, more so than physically) on that approach.

I totally agree. This comes from experience, though! The Army Run was my very first HM, so I definitely needed to just do what I'd practised.

So if I were to run a few 5K or 10K races during training, how many should I do, and how long before my race? I assume not too close, as I would use the results to check if my goal race pace was on target or not, right?

Oye, I got to find some cheap local runs that aren't too competitive or speedy....it would just be depressing to be around 20min 5K runners.

[mas_runner]

I think flexibility is a very important skill to have. If you're so regimented that you HAVE to race exactly the way you train, or HAVE to take one minute every 10 to walk, you are doing yourself a disservice. In a lot of ways I think it's our minds we have to train to accept that you can make changes on the fly to respond to external factors, and that by changing it won't send your entire world into a tailspin. The 10:1 method has helped a lot of people run longer/father than they ever thought they could, but it has also done people a disservice by making them somewhat dependent (psychologically, more so than physically) on that approach.

I agree, I always wonder, what if the 10:1ers get within 200 meters of the finish line and it is walk break time, do they walk across the line or just sprint to the finish??

Joking aside, training the mental aspect is so important. I have had success with breaking down a race into smaller chunks, praising myself for a good split, not getting down on myself for poor split, convincing myself that even though it is hurting that pain is temporary and I will feel so good in the finish area.

[mas_runner]

Oye, I got to find some cheap local runs that aren't too competitive or speedy....it would just be depressing to be around 20min 5K runners.

You don't need to go all HCmD on us, one or two should suffice. St Patrick's is a good fun 5km in March and I enjoyed the Alterna Di4D 10km in July.

Minto as a HM to test your progress is a must, at $35 for a HM it is well worth it.

[La]

So if I were to run a few 5K or 10K races during training, how many should I do, and how long before my race? I assume not too close, as I would use the results to check if my goal race pace was on target or not, right?

You could probably race 5K every weekend if you wanted! The recovery from a 5K race really only takes a few days. And for 10K, a little over a week. But when we talk about recovery times, we mean "time between races" not time between runs. A 10K race is a great workout - it would replace the tempo/speed workout you'd do that week. And don't worry about the distance of the 10K being less than what your LSD should have been that week - just skip it and move on to the next week.

Example - let's say your plan calls for the following:
Week 4 LSD: 12K
Week 5 LSD: 14K
Week 6 LSD: 16K
You want to run a 10K race and it falls on Week 5 of your program. I would skip whatever tempo/speed I had planned for that week and replace it with a steady-state run of 8K or so, run the 10K race on Sunday, then get right back into Week 6 of the program (essentially skipping the 14K long run that was planned). I might also scale back on my planned tempo/speed workout for week 6 if I was still sore/tired from the 10K race the previous Sunday.

Depending on how long your training cycle is (12 weeks? 16?), you could safely run at least one 10K and one or two 5K races during that time. You just have to plan around them and adjust your weekly schedule accordingly.

[PinkLady]

You don't need to go all HCmD on us, one or two should suffice. St Patrick's is a good fun 5km in March and I enjoyed the Alterna Di4D 10km in July.

Minto as a HM to test your progress is a must, at $35 for a HM it is well worth it.

I love how Andy is a verb now!

Thanks for the recs, I'll look them up. I'm DEFINITELY doing Minto, it's cheap and mentally it keeps me from going insane....which I would if I felt like NCM was my one and only chance at PB'ing before fall.

La - thanks for the scheduling advice, that makes a lot of sense.

What would be my race strategy for the 5K or 10K, since they're really not my distances? Would I run them at HM goal pace, or some set amount faster than HM racepace (ie. 30 seconds per km faster)? Or would I go by perceived exertion/heart rate - ie. high lactate threshold levels?

I really have no interest in finding my puke point, tyvm, .....I'd just be using the 5K/10K race as a barometer to see if my HM goal is realistic or not.

[mas_runner]

What would be my race strategy for the 5K or 10K, since they're really not my distances? Would I run them at HM goal pace, or some set amount faster than HM racepace (ie. 30 seconds per km faster)? Or would I go by perceived exertion/heart rate - ie. high lactate threshold levels?

I would go with threshold pace or faster. A quick look at Vdot paces based on your HM result (this is not ideal, it is much better to take a short race result to set paces to train for a longer race), would give you a T pace of 5:48. I would push it closer to the I pace of 5:20- 5:30/km and go for 26:00-27:30 in the 5km...

[HCcD]

You don't need to go all HCmD on us, one or two should suffice. St Patrick's is a good fun 5km in March and I enjoyed the Alterna Di4D 10km in July.

Minto as a HM to test your progress is a must, at $35 for a HM it is well worth it.

I love how Andy is a verb now!

Woohoo ... I made the verb list, like "Kiza-ing" ...

[Jwolf]

If you're still progressing, you might not have to change much from what you did before to break 2:00 if you continue to run consistently. The jump down to 1:50 might take more work though.

I ran a 2:09 half my first time (in 2004) and a year later I was able to do 1:56. That was just from more consistent running, but I was still only running about 45k/week then on 4 days/week with a longest run of 21k. It took a lot more running (but still very little speed work) to get down to 1:51 two years later (2007).

When I first ran 1:56, I had also brought my 10k time down from 58 to 55 and then to 52 min right before the half. When I could do 55 min 10k (the fall before my spring half attempt) my goal for the half was simply to break 2:00, but I progressed a bit more during the training. Again, this was hardly any speed work, but I was doing occasional short tempo runs. I was still doing 10-and-1's.

I didn't train for a 5k until after that.

[MichaelMc]

First of all I would preach a little patience. To me the key to making long term improvements is developing good habits, and letting your solid workouts take effect over time. What is see a lot of in these type of threads (especially the competitive or "lets all run X fast..." is high enthusiasm and grand plans; the problem I see with that is it is unsustainable. "Rah, rah!" only lasts so long in the face of hard work, and many goals in running take TIME. I prefer to see people make one or two good changes to their routine at a time, let those become habit, then make some more adjustments rather than change 8 things and get frustrated.

Specifically, I'm a bit concerned about the pace of your mileage buildup. I'm too lazy to look up your training history, but if the mileage you are contemplating is new-to-you then going from 40ish km per week to 60ish (a 50% increase) is a huge jump. People seem to focus on running "x" miles, thinking hitting that number will do something: I think this misses the point. Let me try to explain.

Your body is built for running whatever mileage (and speedwork) you have been running on average for the past few years. Running more than that puts extra stress on your body, which sends a signal to invest some energy in building itself up stronger (some stress is a good thing). A key point here is that enough stress to send a good signal is ALL you need, any more than that simply tires you out and potentially causes more damage. Just like your thermostat at home, turning the temperature up 10 degrees or 20 degrees makes no difference to how FAST it warms up: the difference is you aren't going to injure your furnace by turning the thermostat too high. To return to running, don't get caught up in a numbers game where you are aiming at "x" miles, you want to advance the mileage at a pace your body can KEEP UP WITH. If your body is built for 40k, running 50k is probably BETTER than running 60k.

Practically, you've been offered a lot of good suggestions above. Most of them would have a positive effect, but personally I would select the BEST ones and implement them rather than trying to implement many simultaneously. If mileage is a critical factor then GRADUALLY build it up. For myself, I don't like "14km, 16km, 18km, 20km, drop back to 14km, and repeat". For one thing, the average of that is 17km but if fools many people into thinking they are getting their body more prepared than that. I'd rather see 14, 14, 14, 16, 16, 16, 18, 18, 18 (assuming your body was used to 12k-ish long runs. I find it works out better for me on a scheduling basis too: not only does my BODY adapt to the mileage steadily, so does my schedule. Don't get me wrong, many people are successful with "fall back" weeks; they aren't WRONG, I just find them misleading/awkward (YMMV). I also think your long runs should over time get to 22+km for solid training for a fast Half.

Quickly (finally!) to your questions: 1) 10&1 is a personal choice, it is neither better or worse at your speed. 2) I'd probably focus on one "quality" run per week (Strides, hills, tempo, intervals, repeats NOT neccessarily in that order) with an option of adding a "fast finish" to some long runs when you've got extra energy. I would run some shorter races in lieu of your speedwork when the opportunity arises. Adjust the pace of your speedwork to keep it "challenging but achieveable".

My explanation may have been long and complicated, but the program I'm suggesting isn't. Add mileage gradually, one main speed session per week (gradually vary the type to keep it interesting and productive), run the balance of your mileage at very easy pace. Spread out the mileage, but (eventually) get your long run >21k.

[PinkLady]

Thanks Jen! I think I would continue to improve if I kept plugging away....but I wanted to change it up because I find the RR schedule isn't my cup of tea. For one, back to back hard workouts leave me exhausted and feeling like I haven't done what I'm capable of. Steady on, though, as they say in the Navy!

Michael - no worries about the mileage buildup, I'm only ramping up fast to get back to where I was preinjury. As soon as I get back to where I was (45km/week) I'm going to hold it there for a few weeks before I increase again, and further increases will be very very conservative. You make a good point about LSD distances though.....from the way I feel, about 16km is what my body is 'used' to. I did 14km last Sunday and felt pretty fresh at the end.

Thank you for reminding me that simple is often better......I think I've been reading too much on these forums!

[purdy65]

Wow Sandra,

You've gotten some fabulous advice here, so I'm not going to muddy the waters at all, except that I agree with La and Michael 100%.

My first half, was 2:30. I didn't do any long runs over 21.1K (Longest was 19 I believe)

Then I started learning a thing or two about running and racing and started to go longer with the ODD tempo (but not really many)

My next half was 2:22 (which was disappointing as it was in the middle of marathon training).

THEN FINALLY after 2 years of build up, and training for another marathon, I did a sub 2hr half.

This year both of my halfs were under 1:50. Mileage baby milage, though I have learned the art of safe effective speedwork, though as Michael mentions, I'm going to start to vary it a bit more now.

So as you can see - it took a while. I think you have more natural speed than I do - so it probably won't take as long - but the patience thing is critical. Cherish every second of improvement - I do.

I've repeated alot, but thanks for this thread! It's interesting.

Lisa

[ultraslacker]

great thread... lots of good stuff in here.


Michael: It might be a subject for a different thread, but I'd like to hear more about what you think about fall-back weeks. I take lots of them because I enjoy them and when my mileage is high I feel like I *need* them, but maybe if I didn't have big/quick build-ups I wouldn't need them as much. They're as much psychological for me as they are physical, especially when my big training weeks are filling up all my personal time. Anyhoo, my current plan has a cut-back every other week, which I've done before and it worked well for me (mentally and physically).

[Irongirl]

okay, here's my take on some of these subjects:

10&1's - I love them for training long runs. During races, I'm a little bit more flexible - NEVER on a hill (up or down), but, generally, I take them when the watch beeps (and not within the last km). I did a 1:52 using 10/1's - and, I'm pretty sure that IB has done a low 1:40 using 10/1's. I've never really looked at the "walk adjusted" pace though - I just know that I need to have an overall pace of xx, and, it seems to work itself out. I really don't think that "continuous" is any faster than 10/1's - unless you are Robbie-T speed.

speed work - sorry I bored you to tears. If we'd had more than 3 weeks, I definitely would have mixed things up! If you ever want to join a fun speed work group - there's a great group on Tuesdays (at the Arboretum though) that I can hook you up with - they do different things every week.....

oh, my 1:52 was done 6 months after my first half - which was a 2:02 (I think) - so, like others have said - since you're definitely improving right now, going sub 2 is definitely within your reach....

5k - there's the Cookie Run this weekend (5 or 10). For a 5k especially, you don't have to wait until you're in "perfect shape" - they are great races to do a little fitness test and get a new number to plug into a training calculator. BUT, you do have to run them at your threshold (almost puking!)

- running alone - I run on the "waterfront" trail in Orleans by myself ALL THE TIME - and have never felt unsafe.

Garmin is good for "current pace" - but, not "overall pace" - which is really what your race is based on.

I like La's suggestion of at least one "longer" run mid-week. I know a lot of people that add in a 16km run on Wednesdays when marathon training....which is why doing a 10k run midweek while half training is definitely beneficial.