Mark 2.0 wrote:Dstew wrote:I loved La's analogy about the flippers and Phelps. Give 100,000 double amputees those blades and have them run a marathon and given all of the other factors that goes into how fast and far, would any of these hypothetical marathoners actually come even close to competing at an elite level? So if we assume that the same percentage of amputees would even want to run a marathon, of that 100,000, about a 100 would even try to run a marathon. 10% of those even have the time and money to properly train, that leaves 10. Of those, how many have even remotely the amount of talent to come even close to an elite level and even be able to break 3 hours, maybe 1 or 2. Odds of that 1 or 2 breaking 2:30, 2:15, etc.
Add in that the amputee would have to be at a fairly young age in order to be able to properly train with the blades. Would a 25 year old who loses both legs have enough time to get up to the hypothetical speed that may be there?
When one really looks at this, the numbers are so incredibly small there would be a very significant question as of if there will ever be a "next" one. Aside from a very, very small percentage of people, almost no one can tell you who won the 400 meters four years ago. So if a guy with blades were to win, would it really matter to the sport? Is it really that bad to suggest someone can overcome significant disadvantages as opposed to working very hard to take advantage of genetic gifts?
One point though; if I were Oscar - and I'm obviously not - but if I were, I'd be more pissed at your position that it's okay for me to compete because I won't win than I would be at Michael's position that the blades give me an unfair advantage, or at least I'm not running the same event as able bodied athletes. If I were Oscar, I'd think that your position is patronizing and condescending. But I'm not Oscar, am I.
I thought I was being clear but obviously I was not. I could actually care less whether Oscar wins or not. If he wins, good for him and I do not see any harm in that as I attempted to point out that he is beating what are essentially nameless and faceless professional athletes who will be quite well off regardless of what Oscar does. To me, him overcoming his disadvantages would be as worthy a reason to cheer as someone working hard to take advantage of their genetic abilities. With regards to why I brought up the point he is likely not to win, Res ipsa loquitur in response to the assumption he has some great advantage. In addition, if you have read all of my responses, I did agree that from a pure logical perspective that whether he could or could not win may not be a valid argument and so I did state that I did not see a big problem were he to win. It was a way of saying mountain out of a mole hill in my opinion.
What I was attempting to address above was the "next" or hypothetical blade runner. Neither you nor Jennifer properly addressed the fact that from a statistical or probability analysis, the odds of another blade runner being able to compete in the Olympics is so small that this is hardly a topic worth debating. I happen to agree with the Court of Appeal that whatever advantages the blades give him, the disadvantages he has take that away.
To put this another way:
There are two basic lines of reasoning why Oscar should not be allowed to compete.
1) He has an advantage over the other competitors and that is unfair. The counter to that is this advantage has not turned into results. The counter to that is he would at longer distances but then response is he has not. Whether he has a net advantage is a matter of debate - some say yes, some say no and those who say yes argue that only because of political correctness has that evidence been rejected and who is to say what the true intentions of the ruling body are. The final piece of this puzzle is the subjective answer to the question of what if Oscar does win. Bad because he was "cheating" due to his blades or Good because of the inspirational value of the win.
2) What about the next "Oscar". Ban Oscar now so that future blade runners stay with the other Olympics and deal with the issue now. The simple argument is that statistics and probabilities would suggest that is not an issue that is ever likely to come up or may come up once or twice. And if it does, good for that person were they to win or bad because of are also "cheating".